Adapting America's modern-day energy mix





The United States is by using a long way the biggest customer of petroleum, averaging almost 20 million barrels a day, or approximately 23% of the arena's typical intake. Although the U.S. Is the 0.33 biggest manufacturer of petroleum, the country is 57% dependent on imported crude to maintain its world have an effect on and the existence of its citizens. The availability and distribution of this crucial commodity, unluckily, is converting unexpectedly in an surroundings this is characterised via rising aggressive nations, prolonged conflicts, transnational threats, and worldwide warming. It is also believed that the sector has reached its "Hubbert's Peak" in oil reserves and manufacturing will decline rapidly over the next one hundred years. Consequently, the U.S. Will keep to feel the lines of oil atrophy and face a tough destiny unless it changes direction.

U.S. Leaders and pupils recognize the need to reduce the dependence upon overseas oil and have enacted rules to break out America's destiny. Recently, the President unveiled components of his new complete energy policy, the cornerstones of which are: increased home manufacturing; stepped forward gas requirements for motors; and renewable energies. These are significant steps in the proper direction. Nonetheless, the mere fact that oil is an over consumed, high demand, globalized commodity that impacts each citizen underscores the need for a greater complete method to energy security.

The Administration ought to enlarge its policy for electricity protection right into a broader framework and rebrand it National Energy Security Strategy (NESS), with the Department of Energy because the lead agency. It should embody a 20-30 yr roadmap for America's safe transformation to a greater relaxed energy destiny below six principal subject matters: Engage, Secure, Conserve, Adapt, Protect, and Evolve (ESCAPE).

The following are quick definitions:

Engage - Engaging our companions in electricity alternate, assuring them of our commitments, and main the cooperative attempt among providers and consumers in order to mitigate capacity friction factors inside the future.

Secure - Maintaining the security and balance of our power resources, inclusive of our oil providers, sea strains of verbal exchange, and essential infrastructure (both home and overseas).

Conserve - Promoting subject in energy consumption through conservation efforts, incentives, and different equipment.

Adapt - Transitioning to a extra various and balanced mix of strength sources through kind and foundation so that you can ensure resiliency in the course of energy shortages and other global crises.

Protect - Protecting the surroundings thru decreased emissions, the use of cleaner and much less environmentally harmful assets of energy, and having fast response abilties to address gas-related failures.

Evolve - Innovating new technology, advocating new thoughts, and remodeling the infrastructure and life to create a more secure and greater sustainable electricity device.

Energy security entails more stakeholders than another crucial hobby. The factors comprising power safety should no longer be fragmented into diverse unsynchronized strategies and plans. Rather, they ought to be synthesized into one complete method so that everyone is familiar with no longer best their roles and responsibilities, but also the relationships and affects of their movements to others. This article outlines the six proposed subject matters of the NESS and the associated issues that warrant a single complete approach.

Engage

The state's leaders desire to navigate away from our oil dependency via regulations and spending and this is a noble assignment. However, inside the near term the U.S. Have to depend on imported oil - it's far an inescapable end. Accordingly, The NESS must deal with how engagement sports will support the gradual transition from imported oil. Engagement ought to involve international relations, leadership, and a hint of political agility with the intention to mitigate destiny disputation among the suppliers and clients.

The worldwide political environment is becoming greater complicated inside the globalized world of oil exchange. By 2030 the arena will devour about 118 Million barrels of oil in keeping with day, or roughly 30 Million extra barrels daily above modern fee. This has spawned a fast-paced diplomatic scramble through both developed and developing nations to cozy the last oil reserves due to the slow development toward extra considerable and safer renewable energies. China and India are aggressively pursuing offers with new companions in oil deliver with the intention to meet their country wide strategic desires for the subsequent several many years. This, coupled with Middle Eastern Muslims' "destructive" perspectives of the U.S., raises the stakes in diplomacy. Energy economist Pete Tertzakian coined the First Principle of Energy Consumption, which observes that a country's wealth is immediately related to its level of power consumption. China, specially, has aggressively engaged oil producers worldwide for the possibility to relaxed a extensive flow of oil. Recently, China supplanted the USA in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq with large export agreements. China additionally these days signed huge oil export agreements with the U.S.'s first and third biggest exporters of oil (Canada and Venezuela). China's current successes endorse one in all two things: (1) either the USA has been out-bargained, or (2) our engagement efforts need improvement.

The Engagement topic of the NESS need to awareness diplomatic efforts on retaining our cutting-edge sources of imported oil, even as forging new relationships with growing international locations of first rate capability. Engagement should encompass coordinated measures which could immediately counter efforts of China in states and areas wherein the U.S. Competes for vital hobbies. The Persian Gulf is one such area wherein China has progressively expanded its control over oil exports through change agreements, infrastructure improvements, and different beneficiant incentives. In addition to beating out the US in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, China is also the second one biggest importer of Iranian oil, which gives it a potential advantage in shaping Middle Eastern politics.

Despite current necessity, the United States have to ultimately become less reliant on Persian Gulf oil. Engaging African and Latin American nations along the Atlantic Ocean ought to reduce our dependency on Middle Eastern oil and significantly reduce risk via shortening sea strains of communication. The United States attracts about 20% of its imported oil from the Persian Gulf and will offset a part of this through new relationships. In 2007, for example, Brazil observed the Carioca-Sugar Loaf Oil subject off of the coast of Rio de Janeiro and it's far believed to hold as much as forty billion barrels of light crude. This discovery, in conjunction with several other fields within the place, may want to offer as much as several million barrels of oil day by day, or sufficient to easily replace a component or all the U.S.'s Middle Eastern exports.

The United States must additionally lead inside the establishment of an worldwide consortium of customer nations to possibly workout any ability alternate troubles or conflicts and to offer a counter force to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Secure

"He who owns the oil will very own the world, for he'll personal the seas by means of the heavy oils, the air by means of the extremely delicate oils, and the land by means of the petrol and the illuminating oils. And in addition to those he'll rule his fellow guy in an monetary sense, by using motive of the brilliant wealth he will derive from oil - the extraordinary substance which is more trendy and greater valuable these days than gold itself." -Henri Berenger

Sustained get admission to to, and drift of imported oil for the duration of this vital transition to a more secure energy blend must continue to be at the forefront of the National Energy Security Strategy (NESS). Oil is intrinsically linked to the economic energy of the U.S. And global demand has risen to this sort of degree that any subtle disruption in global deliver will effect the financial system, down to the person customer.

Throughout the arena, there are numerous crucial regions where supply interdiction may want to ignite a regional crisis with international implications. There are, for instance, oil transit chokepoints alongside sea traces of communications, which includes: the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal and Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline (SUMED), the Bab el-Mendab, the Turkish Straights, and the Panama Canal. Through those eight slender passages go with the flow kind of 42.7 million barrels of oil day by day enroute to consumers, or approximately one half of of the arena's every day consumption. Any disruption of this float (along with the 2008 hijacking of an oil supertanker by using Somali pirates or the 2002 al Qaeda suicide boat assault on the Limbourg) should have profound results at the U.S. Economic system.

There are other disconcerting caution signs and symptoms that the U.S. Must heed. Of the top ten U.S. Oil exporters, for instance, eight are categorised as "in danger" of becoming failed states. These protected: Iraq (crucial), Nigeria, Colombia, Angola, Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico (borderline). Terrorism, both at domestic and overseas, is also a steady risk to the United States oil trade and might have resounding effects on the financial system if centered toward the oil enterprise. Past assaults on oil infrastructure have shown the notable effects that terrorism can reap. Al Qaeda's 2005 attack at the Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia had an evidential impact on the international markets. Terrorist leaders, such as Osama bin Laden, have also known as upon Muslim extremists to awareness attacks on oil infrastructure that serves western pursuits. As these days as March 2010, Saudi Arabian security forces arrested 113 al Qaeda militants that had been plotting to assault key oil facilities in Riyadh.

Piracy is a developing risk to the oil industry, having garnered over "tens of billions" of dollars in ransom cash from hijackings alongside the Horn of Africa and in different locations like the Gulf of Guinea. Oil tankers are hijacked often for tens of millions USD (more or less around 3 million USD in line with vessel), with cargoes that value within the range of 80 - a hundred and sixty million greenbacks. The Sirius Star supertanker, for example, was hijacked in 2008 and become carrying over two million barrels of crude (about 10% of U.S. Daily intake).

The U.S. Homeland, as nicely, isn't without its percentage of vulnerabilities. The Gulf of Mexico and bordering states have the bulk of the U.S.'s domestic oil manufacturing talents. There are oil systems, refineries, and the bulk of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) all nested on this place and susceptible to a full variety of attacks and sabotage. The latest Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident within the Gulf, even though categorised an twist of fate, demonstrates how destructive a capacity assault on infrastructure can be to U.S. Pursuits. Moreover, this unheard of incident is demonstrating the need for the U.S. Government to consist of multi-country wide groups in its strategic framework.

There are handiest about 149 oil refineries in the US. In order to feed the country's demand for fuel, these refineries operate between ninety two to 97 percentage capacity yr lengthy, leaving little room for blunders. The safety of those crucial infrastructure and key sources (CIKR) is for this reason some other component of electricity protection that needs to be coordinated with the milestones set forth within the NESS.

The NESS must manual and inform DoD, DOE, DHS, and others in their duties to comfy the resources of energy which are important to soundly make the transition to opportunity fuels over the following 20 to 30 years. Since sources of US oil originate from diverse volatile locations during the world, the NESS should go beyond conventional barriers installed by way of departments to provide a greater comprehensive expertise of the objectives, priorities, and milestones for reaching electricity protection through all factors of ESCAPE. Clearly, the security of the sea traces of conversation, security and ability building of our pinnacle oil exporters and the protection of oil infrastructure and vessels require a worldwide approach.

Conserve

"Conservation is the fastest, cheapest, most practical supply of electricity." - President Jimmy Carter

Conservation is as crucial to the NESS, as drug demand reduction is to the National Drug Control Strategy. Over 70% of all petroleum fed on by means of the USA is thru the transportation zone, of which nearly 64% of this is thru light automobiles (automobiles, mild vehicles, and bikes). This approach that the bulk of America's energy urge for food is derived from a mixture of many smaller transportation necessities, such as privately owned cars, small enterprise automobiles and vehicles, and other inefficient modes of transportation. Energy intake in the United States is unrivaled via different international locations and lots of it need to be mitigated via call for discount.

The primary objective of the NESS underneath the Conserve subject matter have to be a quantifiable discount in consumption via conservation efforts. The President made several announcements on March thirty first 2010 that touched on the fringes of conservation, but failed to strike at the heart of the problem. Higher fuel standards for cars, alternative fuels, and domestic exploration and production do no longer result in the mobilization of the loads to do greater closer to reducing the developing dependence on imported oil. Even the proposed Home Star Bill uses an incentive-primarily based technique to power conservation, however leaves the consumption charge to the individual person. As written, these equipment invite a paradoxical reaction that leads to potentially higher call for and consumption. This has been called the Jevons Paradox, Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate, or surely the rebound effect. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 become an vital step toward complete energy safety, however neglected the possibility to invoke conservation. The Act addresses higher fuel financial system requirements, renewable fuels, vehicle and equipment technology, electricity mandates for buildings, studies and improvement, and several other regions. However, the best attempt to address the character client became the allotment of five million dollars yearly for the Department of Energy to conduct a countrywide media campaign.

In order to correctly mitigate our oil dependancy, national leaders should embark on a conservation campaign with regulation and incentives as key elements to the NESS in an effort to manual the discount of unbridled intake hand in hand with the opposite milestones of ESCAPE.

The final time the U.S. Leaders efficiently impacted demand boom of oil became between 1977 and 1985, partly as a result of regulation and movement by using President Jimmy Carter for the duration of his term. Through his "Crisis of Confidence" speech and several acts inclusive of the Fuel Use Act, he turned into able to both inspire and put into effect conservation for the betterment of the nation.

Enforcing conservation thru regulation is not a famous undertaking, however however a essential element of a holistic approach. The NESS have to include milestones for the reduction in the use of oil, observed with sure corresponding milestones on improvements to mass transportation, infrastructure, the improvement of renewable energies, environmental regulations, and incentives. The US Government should also take into account the slow boom of a gas tax that could now not most effective set off the common citizen to be greater selective in shopping for and the use of personally owned automobiles, but could similarly assist in mitigating the country wide deficit that resulted in 2008.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), in coordination with the Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, and Internal Revenue Service, would be the suitable lead federal enterprise for the conserve theme of the NESS. In coordination with the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, the USEPA should oversee the strategic implementation of the conservation efforts.

Adapt

The global's overall oil-producing and refining capability is currently operating at over 97.Five percent, this means that that any disruption of oil supply inside the world may have effects on every customer. In a latest study, researchers at Oxford University concluded that through 2015 the sector will surpass its supply capacity with call for, forcing nations which have no longer organized for this turning point to make difficult selections on how to continue to exist the unanticipated period of transition to alternative fuels. Adapt is an important topic of the NESS. Adapt, in a strategic context, is the slow and orderly diversification of our present day power portfolio in step with the converting occasions of global oil call for a good way to get away a future breaking point. The Adapt topic of the NESS ought to cope with no longer only how the state will diversify its strength mix over time, but also how the US will are looking for extra stable and handy resources of oil supply so as to maintain resiliency all through future crises around the globe.

Using 2008 statistics, oil bills for forty percent of the strength marketplace in the United States. This high level of dependency factors to the need to diversify our power blend to greater dependable, purifier strength. Several international locations have finished this apparently difficult mission. Japan, as an instance, has reduced its dependency on oil through more or less 30 percentage and maintains to transform its energy blend primarily based on its New National Energy Security Strategy of 2006. Denmark is some other path-blazer. The oil disaster of 1973 became the catalyst of exchange for the Danish government, which wisely instituted an strength strategy that yielded sufficient wind electricity infrastructure to offer 20% of the usa's electricity. Admirably, Denmark's imaginative and prescient is to grow to be one hundred% unbiased of fossil fuels.

Adapting America's modern-day energy mix requires some open thinking about several traditionally arguable energy resources. Nuclear strength, as an instance, is a divisive subject matter that causes both elected officials and their ingredients to shrink back. Yet, nuclear strength already offers approximately 20 percent of America's electricity, and has avoided the emissions of hundreds of thousands quick heaps of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon dioxide. France makes use of nuclear power to produce eighty percentage of its power.

Domestic oil manufacturing is any other feasible supply of energy, however has suffered latest setbacks due to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill within the Gulf of Mexico. The Outer Continental Shelf surrounding america possesses almost 86 billion barrels of oil and some 420 trillion cubic toes of herbal fuel. This does no longer advocate that the U.S. Have to completely divert to these homeland assets, however have to recollect the chance tradeoff between domestic-produced versus Persian Gulf oil.

Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) is another source of power that has yet to capture the vast interest of American industries. It is the cleanest burning fossil gasoline and has the capacity to replace each coal and gas-burning electricity flora and motors. Despairingly, LNG has no longer been widely embraced within the U.S. And has led to low investments by means of personal organizations. Consequently, simplest seven of the forty LNG terminals that have been permitted for creation inside the U.S. Will probable be built.

The choice of future fuels ought to be carefully determined. Several credible analysts consider that corn ethanol is environmentally unsound, threatening to food supplies, and a facade because of the quantity of fossil fuels in the long run used to cultivate, process and transport it.

Another aspect of adapting the nation's energy mix for the future is to diversify our oil export companions towards extra solid and more secure lengthy-time period resources. Brazil, as an instance, is a solid authorities that currently found a massive oil reserve believed to incorporate anywhere among two and seventy billion barrels of light crude and is about one 1/2 the sea distance to New Orleans than the Persian Gulf.

Protect

Protecting the environment have to be a concern within the NESS and is indissoluble from the other critical elements of the electricity method. Greenhouse gases are inflicting weather trade at unprecedented tiers and were gradually increasing due to human activities, mainly from burning fossil fuels. Emissions of numerous kinds have brought about worldwide warming developments, with the remaining seven of eight years registering because the warmest recorded years over the past century. Similarly, the rate of warming within the remaining thirty years has been 3 times greater than all the previous 100 years.

CO2 emissions are the maximum outstanding participants to those undesirable developments and are at once related to the usage of fossil fuels, specially coal and oil. The United States and China, by using a ways, lead the arena in CO2 emissions, delivering 20% every of the earth's total output. The United States by myself has did not lead, for the reason that it is the top emitter of CO2 (tied with China) and has the lowest fraction of the sector's population of the pinnacle five international locations (five% compared to China's 20%).

In order to protect the environment and save you pointless acceleration of weather alternate, america need to steadily mitigate emissions and similarly lead by way of instance for other international locations. This should be carried out, but, in a coordinated way that doesn't bargain the cutting-edge need to use oil and coal for financial recuperation and maintaining world impact. This method that the establishment of emissions controls and other environmental safeguards need to be synchronized with the employment of sound opportunity fuels, the development of new technologies, the sluggish retraction from imported oil, and the increase of our economic system.

There are several examples of how properly-meant emissions controls can result in sudden effects. Economically, for instance, the airline industry may want to take the hardest hit from carbon taxes because of the CO2 ranges which can be emitted from jets. This way that both the airways can be pressured to make similarly cuts so as to bring about much less commercial enterprise, commerce, and trade, or that the expenses could be surpassed to clients.

Environmentally, a latest examine of Colorado's wind energy program concluded that wind energy sarcastically causes greater emissions because of the intermittent "cycling" of coal flora that is needed to rebalance total strength inside the grid. Still some other illustration is in which studies screen ability will increase in carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions associated with the large shift of the agriculture zone to growing bio-fuel crops. The point here is that without a strategic information of how shielding the surroundings is interrelated and, therefore, balanced with the conservation, edition, and evolution of the U.S. Electricity zone, the greater accidental consequences should end result with impartial, blanket environmental mandates.

Notwithstanding political opinions, the lately proposed American Power Act is an indication that the kingdom's management is cognizant of the interrelationships among protecting the environment and maintaining the economic system in the course of this huge transformation. Within it, there are provisions for cleaner energy development, which includes the incentives for the usage of nuclear electricity, new parameters for safer off-shore drilling, and sensible requirements for the retrofitting of coal power vegetation. Acknowledging that exchange calls for time, it additionally mandates plans and techniques for smooth transportation and pollution reduction, and in addition tries to develop the scope of environmental stewardship to the international level. It even specifies which departments and organizations are responsible for the diverse actions, plans, techniques, and reviews to Congress. In essence, the act has many attributes that would form part of the muse of the NESS.

Another important factor of the Protect topic of the NESS must be a plan to increase comprehensive abilities for speedy and efficiently responding to future strength-associated incidents and failures. The response effort to the latest Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for example, famous wholesale inadequacies of both authorities and personal quarter talents and reaction plans. It not handiest points to insufficient prepared resources which include containment booms, specialized boats, and backup "dome" devices, however in addition demonstrates how convoluted the coordination attempt can be without a roadmap for making plans and workout those responses. The U.S. Government must also be organized to enhance personal organizations with extra reaction capabilities must they lack the capability to successfully respond to an incident in a timely manner.

If the U.S. Follows a logical course closer to much less dependence on imported oil, then the modern-day transformation of our power zone will involve extra offshore drilling and nuclear energy plant life. Accordingly, it's miles best appropriate to enhance the protection of our environment in a strategic experience.

Evolve

The final subject of the comprehensive NESS is Evolve. In order to keep away from reliving the 1970s oil crises in the subsequent 20-30 years, there ought to be a deliberate road map to renovate our infrastructure, transportation structures, living groups, and human behaviors faraway from oil dependence. Only effective evolution in those areas will produce enduring effects.

The primary objective of Evolve under the NESS need to be the transformation of U.S. Infrastructure, energy-consuming systems, and people to be less reliant on oil. There are severa components of infrastructure that want to be upgraded or replaced that allows you to foster electricity protection for the 21st century. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) signified a first rate start line by way of authorizing over 113 billion bucks towards growing a smart grid, enhancing nearby, state, and federal infrastructure, enhancing the federal vehicle fleet, updating public transportation structures, providing tax credit for home proprietors and renewable energy corporations, and investment numerous incentives for research and development. Such a vast investment, but, should in a few manner be guided via a holistic pathway for the subject matters of ESCAPE and no longer relegated to the ones governments and groups which are view this hassle myopically. Spending and sequencing, therefore, should first be aimed at the most giant strength liabilities.

For example, the substitute of coal fired energy vegetation with herbal fuel flora would produce power with a third less strength required, whilst emitting 45 percent less CO2. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) also has the capacity to offset energy demands from coal and oil with cleaner burning fuel, but calls for the development of extra receiving terminals with a purpose to account for the modern-day delta among deliver and call for (15%) and the opportunity of destiny application inside the transportation region and other industries. Nuclear electricity plant life, as stated earlier, produce even greater power with fewer emissions.

Public transportation upgrades have to rank above foremost highway projects, specially road expansions that espouse even greater apathetic use of personal delivery in areas wherein public transportation systems are ample. The U.S. Is significantly outdone by different evolved countries in mass transit. London has the oldest machine and actions over three.4 million people each day. In Hong Kong, mass transit affords ninety percent of all travel. On the contrary, 86 percentage of the U.S. Body of workers drives to paintings, averaging 51 mins on the road each day.

Beyond infrastructure and transportation systems, there are numerous eclectic matters associated with the social dimension that must be included into the approach. Studies on future living communities, for example, may prove to have resonant effects on electricity intake within the United States.

Two prominent authors on strength, Peter Tertzakian and Jeff Rubin, both write with placing similarity approximately the evolution of dwelling situations in the future because of oil shortages. Tertzakian writes that in the future we'd see the improvement of "Triple E Villages" that "integrate ecology, strength performance, and are electronically enabled." In these villages food might be produced domestically, sun and wind strength will offer semi-self reliant electricity sources, and earning will be earned through our on-line world. Jeff Rubin believes that necessity will drive us to smaller communes centered on meals resources together with farms or multistory greenhouses ("Farmscrapers"), due to the decreased availability of imported meals and items. These ideas may additionally seem to be a bit too radical to technique from the political pulpit, but they nonetheless factor to a place that needs to conform through the years if we're to mitigate a number of the root causes of gradually increasing strength consumption.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There is honestly no silver bullet over the horizon and the sector cannot preserve the projected ranges of oil intake over the following couple of many years. During this period, the sector will witness flashpoints over oil a good way to be characterised with the aid of accelerated struggle, terrorism, piracy, climate exchange, petro-political coercion, and economic recession. In growing countries, the gradual deprivation of this resource may be manifested through higher poverty rates, starvation, declining infrastructure and gross home product, and the capacity collapse of governments.

World leaders must interfere now by placing the strategic direction for reduced oil intake and the U.S. Need to lead the way with a version method for strength protection. This huge undertaking can't be done, however, by just a few brave elected officials. It calls for a team spirit of attempt among the authorities, private enterprise, and the American people. The kingdom will no longer comprehend the imaginative and prescient of a safer surroundings and a nation freed from oil dependence via band-aid answers, which includes brief term tax credit, extra green jobs, and hybrid vehicles. This can best be done by way of bringing the presently diffuse efforts into harmony with the implementation of a National Energy Security Strategy (NESS).

The NESS can offer the vision, framework, and pathway to a more secure destiny and ensure that all stakeholders are guided by using one complete attempt. The NESS need to cope with all strains of attempt embodied in ESCAPE via setting objectives and milestones with the intention to carefully mitigate the tensions and unintended outcomes of range piped efforts.

The Department of Energy need to have the lead function in developing the strategy and coordinating the efforts. After all, President Carter created the department in 1977 following the national electricity crisis to oversee the National Energy Plan. This may additionally require a metamorphosis of the department so one can increase its capacity to do strategic making plans and to lead the intergovernmental, interagency, and multinational coordination.

The destiny of this grand kingdom and its children rests in the arms of the leaders and residents who are making critical decisions today. It isn't always so essential to linger at the reality this us of a propelled itself to hegemony through the industrious use of oil. Instead, it is now time to cognizance in the direction of remodeling the American way into a safer, greater sustainable, and prosperous society.

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